November 2009

MIT Index Says Commercial Prices On the Rise

Prices of commercial real estate in which there are large numbers of major investors rose 4.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the MIT Center for Real Estate’s transaction-based index.

This is the first increase in more than a year and the largest since the market slowed in mid-2007. Observers see this as a harbinger of better times in the troubled commercial space.

“One quarter does not a trend make and we are still well below normal trading volume,” David Geltner, director of research at MIT/CRE, said in a statement. “Nevertheless, this is the strongest sign of a bottom that we’ve had in two years.”

Source: Reuters News, Ilaina Jonas (10/3/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Treasury Secretary Confident in Recovery

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reassured an audience of businesspeople last week that the troubled commercial real estate sector wouldn’t severely damage the rest of the economy.

“I think the economy can handle it,” Geithner said.

Geithner described the economy in the third quarter as “broad and strong” and concluded, “I think you can say with confidence that the financial system is stable [and that] the economy has stabilized.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Doug Cameron (10/30/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Pending Home Sales Continue to Rise

Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains – the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9.

The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable.
“What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

Watch a video interview of Yun as he talks about these latest pending-home sales trends.

NAR estimates approximately 3 million renters are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home. “As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers,” Yun said. “Although the tax credit is greatly reviving the existing home market, new-home sales may continue to struggle as home builders hold back production to drive down inventory. In addition, there remains an ongoing credit crunch for construction loans.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast slipped 2.0 percent to 83.6 in September but remains 16.9 percent above September 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 8.1 percent to 98.2 in September and is 17.8 percent higher than a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 4.9 percent to an index of 109.7 and is 22.8 percent above September 2008. In the West the index jumped 10.2 percent to 143.8 and is 23.7 percent above a year ago.

Yun added that strong near-term reports should not be overstated. “We’re clearly not out of the woods because an excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements,” he said. “Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline. An extended and expanded tax credit would help absorb this incoming inventory.”

— NAR

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

How to Tell Mortgage Rates Are Rising

What are the signs that mortgage rates, now at historic lows, are about to go up?

One way to catch a clue is to read the minutes of the Federal Reserve. For instance, the Federal Open Market Committee said in its September minutes that when it came to interest rates, there is “no policy change.” And the minutes said that while the Fed believes “an economic recovery is underway,” it regards a weak economy as a greater risk than inflation. Upcoming meeting minutes are likely to be just as forthcoming if an uptick is in the cards.

Other signs include:

* Declining unemployment: The unemployment rate is sitting at 9.7 percent. If lots of Americans go back to work, an increase in interest rates is likely.
* Rising discount rate: The rate the Fed charges banks that borrow from it directly stands at 0.5 percent. If it rises or the spread between it and the Federal Funds rate widens, then mortgage rate increases won’t be far behind.

Source: BusinesWeek.com, Marc Roth (10/28/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

FHA 203(k) Loans on the Rise

The FHA-backed 203(k) rehab loan is an increasingly popular option in today’s market because so many available properties – especially foreclosures – are in need of repair.

A streamlined 203(k) provides money to pay for improvements such as a new roof, appliances, furnace, energy-efficient windows, and cosmetic improvements like carpet, paint, and remodeled kitchens and baths.

The maximum loan available is $35,000. The buyer must put down 3.5 percent of the acquisition plus repair costs. At closing, the seller is paid and the remaining money goes into an escrow account to pay for repairs.

A licensed contractor must complete the work within six months. Some lenders allow the borrower to do minor cosmetic work like painting themselves.

Source: Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune, Lynn Underwood (10/25/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Mortgage Applications Fall Again

Mortgage applications declined again last week, falling 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the previous week.

Most of the decline was in refinances, which fell 16.2 percent. The seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased 5.2 percent.

On an unadjusted basis, the purchase index declined 4.8 percent and was down 15.4 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

Except for 15-year rates, mortgage rates were down slightly:

* 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.04 percent from 5.07 percent.
* 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.53 percent from 4.51 percent.
* 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.79 percent from 6.86 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (10/28/2009)

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Landlords Cut Commercial Rents

Commercial landlords are struggling to keep tenants and hold onto property in one of the toughest markets in decades.

Nationwide, effective office rents fell 8.5 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2008, according to Reis Inc., and companies reduced office space drastically, vacating 19.6 million square feet, the equivalent of six Empire State Buildings, Reis calculated.

Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis, predicts that this drop in rents likely will spur a pickup in leasing activity over the next 12 months.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, A.D. Pruitt (10/28/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Vacant Homes Up Slightly

Vacant homes in the U.S.—including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation properties—rose to 18.8 million in the third quarter, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The record high for vacancies was 18.95 million in the first quarter of this year. There were 18.4 vacancies in the third quarter last year.

In total, there were 130.3 million homes in the U.S. in the third quarter, according to the census. About 2 million were for sale, 4.6 million for rent, and 4.6 million were vacation homes that are only used a portion of the year.

Source: Bloomberg, Kathleen M. Howley (10/29/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

House Committee Weighs Scrapping HVCC

The appraisal system imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last May is under attack by the House Financial Services Committee and could be on its way out.

The “Home Valuation Code of Conduct” could be terminated by the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency under a bipartisan amendment approved by the House committee.

The amendment would require the new agency’s director to replace the code with a set of rules developed through regular administrative procedures and public comment periods used by all federal agencies. The valuation code was the product of a settlement among New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Critics say the code created more problems than it solved and has encouraged lenders to use inexperienced appraisers who don’t know the areas where they are doing the work, which is resulting in lowball valuations as well as higher fees.

The legislation under which this code would be scrapped is likely to pass the full House, but may have a tough road in the Senate.

Source: The Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth Harney (10/30/2009)

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

New-Home Sales Decline

After increasing for five consecutive months, new-home sales declined 3.6 percent in September compared with August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000, the Commerce Department reported yesterday.

Sales were down 7.8 percent compared to September 2008.

Most of the decline was in the West and the South, where sales fell 11 percent and 10 percent respectively. These reduction were offset by transactions in the Midwest, where sales jumped 34 percent.

Analysts were surprised by the decline, and some blamed it on the first-time home buyer tax credit, which sucked up customers eager to buy foreclosure bargains. Others said that the new normal for time between signing the sales contract and closing is two months or longer, a reality that could be reflected in these numbers.

“We don’t know yet if it’s anything more than a blip,” says Steven Ricchiuto, an economist for Mizuho Securities USA.

Source: Washington Post, Renae Merle (10/29/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

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