January 2010

Existing-Home Sales Down, but Prices Rise

Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.

Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.

“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010.”

However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. “Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.

“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.

Falling Inventories

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.

“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home.”

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.

Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.

Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip

Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.

The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.

Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.

The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.

Regional Breakdown

Here are existing-home sales figures by region:

Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.

Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.

South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.

West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.

— NAR
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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Housing Components Don’t Last Forever

Many aspects of a home last little more than a decade. Home buyers should be especially vigilant about inspecting these household components because they have a relatively short lifespan, says the National Association of Home Builders.
•    Aluminum roof coating: 3-7 years
•    Enameled steel sinks: 5-7 years
•    Security systems: 5-10 years
•    Carpet: 8-10 years
•    Smoke detectors: fewer than 10 years
•    Faucets: 10-15 years
•    Garage door openers:10-15 years
•    Air conditioners: 10-15 years
•    Asphalt: 12-15 years
•    Termite-proofing during construction: 12 years
Source: Bankrate.com, Marcie Geffner (01/22/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Big Test Ahead for Mortgage Market

The cessation of the government program to buy mortgage-backed securities, set to end in a couple of months, will show whether the White House and Federal Reserve have effectively stimulated the lending market to the point that it is now on solid footing.

If the sector slumps again, home owners could face a new period of distress.

Keeping mortgage rates at record lows was a major component of the economic strategy during President Obama’s first year in office. While it did not garner the kind of headlines that efforts to bail out banks did, the policy did help revitalize home buying in parts of the country and assisted millions of home owners who were able to refinance.

Source: Washington Post, David Cho, Neil Irwin, and Dina ElBoghdady (01/25/10)

© Copyright 2009 Information Inc.

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Housing Economists: Sales Are on the Rise

The housing recovery should gain moment in 2010, but the improvement will still be slow, according to a panel of economists speaking at the International Builders Show in Las Vegas.

“It won’t be a strong recovery, but it will be a recovery,” said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Crowe forecast that sales of new homes will rise by about 33 percent while resales will go up 7 percent. He expects prices to remain stable in most areas, but some cities may see some slight declines.

“I believe we’ve seen the worst of the house price declines … The stage is set for the consumer to return,” Crowe said.

Source: Associated Press, Alex Veiga (01/19/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Tax Credit Encourages Buyers to Shop Early

The homebuying season is starting early this year, thanks to the expanded first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit.

Typically, the busiest time for home shopping starts in March and continues through May, but this year buyers who want to take advantage of the tax credits have to have a signed contract by April 30 and close the deal by June 30.

That is getting people off the couch.

“The tax credit will absolutely have an effect,” says Pete Flint, CEO of residential real estate search engine Trulia.com. “It is going to shift demand from the later part of the year to the first part. January and February will be very strong. The next three months, there will be a surge in demand.”

Source: USA Today, Stephanie Armour (01/20/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Banks Teeter as Commercial RE Struggles

Commercial real estate prices rose 1 percent in November. That’s the first increase in more than a year, according to Moody’s/ReAL Commercial Property Price Indices.

But it’s too soon to say the sector is stabilizing. Moody’s analyst Connie Petruzziello predicts that occupancy and rental rates will fall in the first half of 2010, pushing prices downward as well. She expects prices to decline as much as 45 percent to 55 percent from their peak in 2007 before they begin to recover later this year.

The woes of the commercial real estate market are likely to cause more banks to fail in 2010, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair said in a speech to the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association.

Bair said regulators predict higher delinquencies and charge offs for commercial real estate properties in the first three months of this year. “Commercial real estate credit problems are affecting large and small banks alike,” Bair said.

Source: Reuters News, Ilaina Jonas (01/20/2010) and The Wall Street Journal, Michael R. Crittenden (01/20/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Older Buyers Look for Easy-Care Homes

A survey showed three key differences between the concerns of 55- to 64-year-old homeowners compared to those of homeowners 65 and older:

•    Younger homeowners were more interested in technology
•    Older homeowners had a strong preference for a single-story floor plan or at least one with a first-floor master
•    Younger homeowners were more eager for home maintenance and repair services, vs. older homeowners, who were more focused on healthcare and transportation

The survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders and the MetLife Mature Market Institute showed that both age groups want easy access to services that free up their time and help them live in a secure environment.

Growth in housing for older people has slowed as a result of the overall slowdown in new home construction. This is likely to cause a shortage just as this housing is most in demand, points out Paul Emrath, vice president for housing policy research for the home builders.

Source: National Association of Home Builders and the MetLife Mature Market Institute (01/19/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Timeshare Industry Hit Hard by Recession

The recession has been particularly tough on the timeshare business. Sales are down; defaults are up. Resort development has come to a standstill, and thousands of salespeople have been laid off.

Scams targeting owners desperate to get out from under payments are resulting in consumer complaints and actions from state attorneys general all over the country.

Sales dropped 48 percent in 2008 and 40 percent in 2009. They are likely remain flat in 2010, estimates Howard Nusbaum, CEO of American Resort Development Association.

Nussbaum says customer satisfaction remains high with 50 percent of buyers already owning another time share. He blames the slowdown on customers’ inability to get independent financing and the industry’s difficulties repackaging and reselling mortgages they used to provide buyers.

Source: Gannett News Service, Roger Yu (01/17/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

Some Lenders Skirt GFE Requirements

Some lenders are avoiding the requirement that they lock in the good faith estimate by providing something loan officers are calling “worksheets” or “loan scenario forms” that don’t have to meet a government accuracy standard.

The worksheets contain some of the information provided by a good faith estimate. They are typically provided to shoppers who don’t provide – and often aren’t asked to provide – key information, such as the address of the property to be financed.

Loan officers defend the worksheets, saying that it is impossible to provide completely accurate estimates. But Vicki Bott, a deputy assistant secretary for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, says if these worksheets turn out to be a way for lenders to avoid meeting their obligations, the department will respond by tightening the guidelines.

Meanwhile, buyers should ask for the good-faith estimate by name, so they get an accurate estimate of costs.

Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth Harney (01/15/2010)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker

Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta

315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100

Decatur, GA 30030

(404) 431-2117

Web: www.elliottyouragent.com

Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com

Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob