Market Survey

Existing-Home Sales Down, but Prices Rise

Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.

Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.

“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010.”

However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. “Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.

“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.

Falling Inventories

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.

“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home.”

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.

Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.

Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip

Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.

The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.

Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.

The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.

Regional Breakdown

Here are existing-home sales figures by region:

Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.

Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.

South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.

West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.

— NAR
———————————————————
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Metro Atlanta
315 West Ponce de Leon Ave., Ste. 100
Decatur, GA 30030
(404) 431-2117
Web: www.elliottyouragent.com
Blog – www.elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/elliottrob

City of Decatur – Fewer Listings Equal Pent-Up Demand

In the first part of our study on the City of Decatur, we did an analysis of the 1st six months of 2007, 2008 and 2009. The analysis confirmed what most people have felt which is that sales of single family homes in Decatur are down considerably over the past two year (down 53% from 2007).

There are several mitigating factors in this trend.  The biggest of which is perhaps the apprehension of potential sellers to place their property on the market during a time of economic malaise.  At the end of 2008 and early 2009, there was an over-saturation of negative media stories creating the false impression that every seller must be on the verge of bankruptucy so throw them any old offer because they’ll ahve to accept.  This birthed a buyer pool that had a “Deal or No Deal” mentality.  The notion of potential buyers bringing in parades of lowball offers simply placed potential sellers on the sidelines.

The positive impact of this posture is that there is a pent up demand in the buyer pool for high quality single-family homes.  The City of Decatur and other highly desirable locales within the Atlanta Metro Area (Candler Park, Inman Park, Ansley Park, Druid Hills, etc.) still have the intangibles that serious buyers look for: great schools, proximity to Downtown/Midtown, family activities, great restaurants, etc. 

Obviously the rules for obtaining financing have changed the housing marketplace considerably.  However, certain neighborhoods are somewhat less susceptible to the increased restrictions due to the professional make-up and income profile of the residents.

With the start of school less than 1 month away (August 10th), this would be a great time for sellers who have held back to test the marketplace.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

City of Decatur – Single Family Intown Market Study

City of Decatur – Single Family Homes

This month we will compare the sales activity for the 1st six months of 2007 to 2008 to 2009.  Prior to pulling the data, there was an industry consensus that closing activity has been down.  However, there was some feeling that once the home buying season kicked into gear, things would certainly pick up.  To date, that has not been the case as sellers who do not need to sell appear to be sitting out 2009 in the hopes of a more stable and promising 2010.

I’ll start with an analysis of the City of Decatur (COD) as a whole and in later posts, I’ll break down some of the individual neighborhoods in search of trends.

2007

Through the first 6 months of 2007, the COD Single Family Market was experiencing an explosion.  There were 145 single family home sales in the first half of ‘07 for an average sales price of $379,646.

A sizable thrust of the growth was spurred on by significant new construction activity in Oakhurst.  There was an appetite for newer homes in general, with 31 of the homes sold being built after 1995 (21% of total sales).  Sycamore Ridge (Decatur Heights) and Glenlake Commons comprised the majority of resales for homes built after 1995.  The average sales price of those newer homes  was $477,093.   City of Decatur sales of property built before 1995 was $354,972.  Newer construction realized an average sale price in excess of $120,000 over the COD’s older housing stock.

The Days on Market was almost identical at 60 for older homes and 63 for newer properties.

2008

The first half of 2008 saw a 20% decrease in total sales (to 117 from 145).  The average sales prices saw a 3% decline from $379,646 to $368,778.

Newer home sales were still strong at just under 20% of total sales (23 sold).  And the activity in this area saw most of its transactions come from Oakhurst new construction and Sycamore Ridge resales.  The 2008 average sales price for a home built after 1995 was $516,260.

The Days on the Market inched up slightly for both total sales (71) and newer home sales (79).

2009

The COD market activity has declined dramatically in the first half of 2009.  The total number of home sales has plummeted to 69, down 42% from 2008 and 53% from 2007.  On a positive note, despite the slowed activity, the average sales price has increased to $391,504 eclipsing the average of 2007 by over $12,000.  A great sign that despite the slowdown, the COD remains a highly desirable market for homebuyers.

Given the strong new construction growth over the past 5 years, it was bound to slow down.  A great deal of the more desirable lots have been converted and new construction financing has become more tenuous for in-town builders.  There have only been 12 sales of homes build post 1995, with Oakhurst still leading the charge.  Surprisingly, Sycamore Ridge has only accounted for 2 sales in the first six months of 2009.

Another sign of a strong COD market is that Days on Market has dropped back down to 63 days.  A 6 day decrease from its 2008 figure of 71.   However, perhaps due to the shift in the market and somewhat skewed due to a few homes being delayed in construction, the newer home Days on Market increased to 120 days.

* Data provided by First Multiple Listing Service.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

Great Lakes (City of Decatur) – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
2% increase from $505,418 in ‘07-’08 to $517,914 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
127% increase from 52 days to 118 days.

Number of Homes Sold
13% decrease from 8 in ’07-’08 to 7 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
10% decrease from $4,043,344 in ’07-’08 to $3,625,398 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 4 bed/ 3.5 bath on Michigan Ave sold for $800,000. It was on the market for 153 days.

Lowest Price: A 5 bed/ 2.5 bath on Lucerne St. sold for $341,000. It was on the market for 196 days.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Druid Hills – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
21% decrease from $696,664 in ‘07-’08 to $552,358 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
27% increase from 64 days to 81 days.

Number of Homes Sold
18% decrease from 76 in ’07-’08 to 62 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
35% decrease from $52,946,464 in ’07-’08 to $34,246,196 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 6 bed/ 6.5 bath on Lullwater Road sold for $2,250000.  It  was on the market for 232 days.

Lowest Price: A 4 bed/ 2 bath on Briarcliff Road sold for $225,000. It was on the market for 67 days.  This house was a fixer upper.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Avondale Estates – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
7% decrease from $323,964 in ‘07-’08 to $301,575 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
6% decrease from 87 days to 82 days.

Number of Homes Sold
7% decrease from 60 in ’07-’08 to 56 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
13% decrease from $19,437,840 in ’07-’08 to $16,888,200 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 4 bed/ 3.5 bath on Fairfield Drive sold for $600,000. It was on the market for 140 days.

Lowest Price: A 4 bed/ 2 bath on Third Avenue sold for $51,100. It was on the market for 34 days.  This sale was a bank owned property.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Winnona Park (City of Decatur) – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
12% increase from $398,562 in ‘07-’08 to $448,033 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
57% increase from 60 days to 94 days.

Number of Homes Sold
7% decrease from 29 in ’07-’08 to 31 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
20% increase from $11,558,298 in ’07-’08 to $13,889,023 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 5 bed/ 4 bath on Winnona Drive sold for $725,000. It was on the market for 42 days.

Lowest Price: A 3 bed/ 1 bath on Oldfield Road sold for $195,000. It was on the market for 100 days.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Oakhurst (City of Decatur) – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
3% increase from $361,877 in ‘07-’08 to $371,837 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
20% decrease from 74 days to 59 days.

Number of Homes Sold
15% decrease from 85 in ’07-’08 to 72 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
13% decrease from $30,756,545 in ’07-’08 to $26,722,264 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 5 bed/ 4.5 bath on W. Benson St. sold for $785,000. It was on the market for 49 days.

Lowest Price: A 3 bed/ 1 bath on 2nd Ave sold for $95,000. It was on the market for 26 days.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Decatur Heights (City of Decatur) – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
5% drop from $373,247 in ‘07-’08 to $355,770 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
19% increase from 70 days to 83 days.

Number of Homes Sold
32% increase from 19 in ’07-’08 to 25 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
25% increase from $7,091,693 in ’07-’08 to $8,894,250 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 5 bed/ 3.5 bath on Springdale St. sold for $645,168. It was on the market for 28 days.

Lowest Price: A 2 bed/ 1 bath on E. Ponce de Leon sold for $148,000. It was on the market for 6 days. This was a bank owned sale. The same property sold for $230,743 5 months later.

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Glenwood Estates (City of Decatur) – Market Survey June ‘09

This analysis compares residential single family sales activity from June2007-May 2008 to activity from June 2008-May 2009.

Average Sales Price
28% increase from $431,200 in ‘07-’08 to $552,142 in ‘08-’09.

Average Number of Days on the Market
64% decrease from 113 days to 41 days.

Number of Homes Sold
40% increase from 5 in ’07-’08 to 7 in ’08-’09.

Overall Sales Volume
79% increase from $2,156,000 in ’07-’08 to $3,864,994 in ’08-’09.

Milestone sales within the last 12 months
Most Expensive: A 6 bed/ 3 bath on Mount Vernon Dr. sold for $785,000. It was on the market for 47 days.

Lowest Price: A 3 bed/ 2 bath on Pinecrest Ave sold for $410,000. It was on the market for 22 days.