Atlanta

Troubled Jumbo Loans Hurt Broader Market

Houses that cost more than $730,000 – the cap for conforming jumbo loans – can be extremely tough to buy, sell, or refinance these days, freezing the high-end market and holding down activity in lower-priced markets, real estate practitioners say.

The slowdown results from lenders’ reluctance to offer mortgages above the amount Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will insure.

“What you’re seeing are those properties sitting on the market for a lot longer because people can’t get loans,” says David Kerr, an associate with ZipRealty in Marin County, Calif. ” All of what we’re showing is in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range.”

States that are most affected are those where jumbos account for more than 10 percent of all mortgages, including Hawaii, California and New York, as well as Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia, Connecticut, Washington, Nevada, and Florida.

The Obama administration program to refinance underwater mortgages doesn’t offer help to holders of jumbo mortgages, so borrowers who can’t refinance are defaulting in increasing numbers. According to First American CoreLogic, jumbos that are 90 days or more delinquent reached 4.83 percent in March 2009, up from 1.68 percent in March 2008.

“We need to have a market recovery in all segments,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. “If the high-end market weakens, those in the middle have to reduce prices . . . All of Middle America is undoubtedly impacted.”

Source: USAToday, Stephanie Armour (07/15/2009)
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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

Atlanta

Unemployed Might Get Anti-Foreclosure Help

The Obama administration is reportedly considering a program that would give loan forbearance to the unemployed. The aim of the program is to provide help without distorting the housing market.

The program would augment the federal loan modification program, giving unemployed workers more time and financial leeway to qualify for a new loan.

So far the loan modification program hasn’t been very successful for a variety of reasons, including the declining equity many troubled borrowers have in their homes and rising unemployment figures that make lenders unwilling to participate.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department asked the 25 largest mortgage service companies to appoint a liaison officer to work with the government to slow defaults. On July 28, Treasury will host a meeting with these servicers to examine whether qualified applicants are being ignored.

Source: Reuters News, Patrick Rucker and David Lawder (07/13/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

Atlanta

City of Decatur – Fewer Listings Equal Pent-Up Demand

In the first part of our study on the City of Decatur, we did an analysis of the 1st six months of 2007, 2008 and 2009. The analysis confirmed what most people have felt which is that sales of single family homes in Decatur are down considerably over the past two year (down 53% from 2007).

There are several mitigating factors in this trend.  The biggest of which is perhaps the apprehension of potential sellers to place their property on the market during a time of economic malaise.  At the end of 2008 and early 2009, there was an over-saturation of negative media stories creating the false impression that every seller must be on the verge of bankruptucy so throw them any old offer because they’ll ahve to accept.  This birthed a buyer pool that had a “Deal or No Deal” mentality.  The notion of potential buyers bringing in parades of lowball offers simply placed potential sellers on the sidelines.

The positive impact of this posture is that there is a pent up demand in the buyer pool for high quality single-family homes.  The City of Decatur and other highly desirable locales within the Atlanta Metro Area (Candler Park, Inman Park, Ansley Park, Druid Hills, etc.) still have the intangibles that serious buyers look for: great schools, proximity to Downtown/Midtown, family activities, great restaurants, etc. 

Obviously the rules for obtaining financing have changed the housing marketplace considerably.  However, certain neighborhoods are somewhat less susceptible to the increased restrictions due to the professional make-up and income profile of the residents.

With the start of school less than 1 month away (August 10th), this would be a great time for sellers who have held back to test the marketplace.

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

Atlanta

Another Rash of Foreclosures Coming Soon?

Some economic observers are predicting another wave of foreclosures later this summer or in the fall. That’s because lenders that have held off on foreclosures as part of President Obama’s plan will now move forward aggressively to clear the backlog of troubled mortgages.

Rising foreclosures will further depress home values, says Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, who calculates that 15.4 million homeowners—one in five of those with first mortgages—will be underwater.

Seth Wheeler, a senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, says the government is “unlikely to implement another moratorium.”

But Wheeler said the government plans to put in place some programs that encourage lenders to try some alternatives to foreclosure.

Source: Chicago Tribune, Don Lee (07/06/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Atlanta

City of Decatur – Single Family Intown Market Study

City of Decatur – Single Family Homes

This month we will compare the sales activity for the 1st six months of 2007 to 2008 to 2009.  Prior to pulling the data, there was an industry consensus that closing activity has been down.  However, there was some feeling that once the home buying season kicked into gear, things would certainly pick up.  To date, that has not been the case as sellers who do not need to sell appear to be sitting out 2009 in the hopes of a more stable and promising 2010.

I’ll start with an analysis of the City of Decatur (COD) as a whole and in later posts, I’ll break down some of the individual neighborhoods in search of trends.

2007

Through the first 6 months of 2007, the COD Single Family Market was experiencing an explosion.  There were 145 single family home sales in the first half of ‘07 for an average sales price of $379,646.

A sizable thrust of the growth was spurred on by significant new construction activity in Oakhurst.  There was an appetite for newer homes in general, with 31 of the homes sold being built after 1995 (21% of total sales).  Sycamore Ridge (Decatur Heights) and Glenlake Commons comprised the majority of resales for homes built after 1995.  The average sales price of those newer homes  was $477,093.   City of Decatur sales of property built before 1995 was $354,972.  Newer construction realized an average sale price in excess of $120,000 over the COD’s older housing stock.

The Days on Market was almost identical at 60 for older homes and 63 for newer properties.

2008

The first half of 2008 saw a 20% decrease in total sales (to 117 from 145).  The average sales prices saw a 3% decline from $379,646 to $368,778.

Newer home sales were still strong at just under 20% of total sales (23 sold).  And the activity in this area saw most of its transactions come from Oakhurst new construction and Sycamore Ridge resales.  The 2008 average sales price for a home built after 1995 was $516,260.

The Days on the Market inched up slightly for both total sales (71) and newer home sales (79).

2009

The COD market activity has declined dramatically in the first half of 2009.  The total number of home sales has plummeted to 69, down 42% from 2008 and 53% from 2007.  On a positive note, despite the slowed activity, the average sales price has increased to $391,504 eclipsing the average of 2007 by over $12,000.  A great sign that despite the slowdown, the COD remains a highly desirable market for homebuyers.

Given the strong new construction growth over the past 5 years, it was bound to slow down.  A great deal of the more desirable lots have been converted and new construction financing has become more tenuous for in-town builders.  There have only been 12 sales of homes build post 1995, with Oakhurst still leading the charge.  Surprisingly, Sycamore Ridge has only accounted for 2 sales in the first six months of 2009.

Another sign of a strong COD market is that Days on Market has dropped back down to 63 days.  A 6 day decrease from its 2008 figure of 71.   However, perhaps due to the shift in the market and somewhat skewed due to a few homes being delayed in construction, the newer home Days on Market increased to 120 days.

* Data provided by First Multiple Listing Service.

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222 ext. 26
Blog: elliottonrealestate.com
Twitter: elliottrob@twitter.com

Atlanta

New Programs Target Low-Income Buyers

Under the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program, many new state and local initiatives are expected to roll out in the next few weeks that will help middle- and low-income families buy foreclosed homes in hard-hit neighborhoods.

In all, about $5 billion is available, including $50 million in technical assistance to get the programs up and running. Regulations limit participation to households earning no more than 120 percent of the median income with 25 percent of the money going to families earning less than half the median.

The funds must be used for primary residences in communities with the highest incidences of foreclosures and subprime loans. There also will be a lease-to-own program.

The Neighborhood Stabilization Program was authorized last summer, but it has been rolling out slowly because the volume of paperwork involved has stymied communities.

Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (06/24/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Atlanta

Home Builders Seek Close-In Properties

Home builders are searching for property to buy, despite owning lots of land in outlying suburbs.

Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm, says demand for lots in prime locations is increasing, with builders competing for properties in Phoenix, near Washington, D.C., and in parts of California.

In some cases, the price of available property has declined substantially. In prime Phoenix suburbs, for instance, the average cost of a 6,000- to 7,000-square-foot lot has sunk from $120,000 in 2005 to $35,000 currently.

Rich Samit, chief executive of Fraser Forbes Co., a land broker in McLean, Va., says properties in the “appealing” Washington, D.C., suburbs are being bought by builders who want to reload their inventories in anticipation of better times.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (06/24/2009)

——————–
Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Atlanta

Mortgage Rates on a Roller Coaster

After spiking to six-month highs a couple of weeks ago, mortgage rates fell again last week only to rise again this week.

Interest on 30-year fixed mortgages settled at an average of 5.42 percent this week, reports Freddie Mac, up from 5.38 percent in the previous week but lower than the prevailing rate of 6.45 percent a year ago.

Five-year, hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages also bumped up a couple of notches to 4.99 percent, but 15-year fixed loans and one-year ARMs moved in the opposite direction. The former slipped to 4.87 percent from 4.89 percent, while the latter fell to 4.93 percent from 4.95 percent.

Source: Wall Street Journal (06/26/09)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Atlanta

Mortgage Applications Bounce Back

Mortgage applications bounced back last week after nearly a month in the doldrums when the number of applications fell to a seven-month low.

The market index compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association rose 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis to 548.2 points from 514.4 points the previous week.

On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and rose 17.2 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

Both purchases and refinances were up with the purchase share increasing 7.3 percent and refinances rising 5.9 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (06/24/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

Atlanta

Fed to Keep Short-Term Rates Low

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it expects to keep short-term interest rates “exceptionally low” for the next few months. It also underscored its commitment to make $1.25 trillion in total purchases of mortgage-backed securities by the end of year.

Both actions are likely to keep mortgage rates low through the end of 2009.

The Fed failed to raise a cap of $300 billion in purchases of Treasury securities, which could lead indirectly to higher mortgage rates because mortgage rates tend to rise in conjunction with Treasurys.

In response to the possibility of rising mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association this week cut its forecast for total 2009 mortgage originations by 27 percent.

Source: Inman News (06/25/2009)

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Elliott Robinson, JD – Associate Broker
Adams Realtors
458 Cherokee Ave. SE
Atlanta, GA 30312
(o) 404-688-1222

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